These are some of my current projects. Comments and suggestions are welcome.
The figure shows the number of active users of a casual
mobile games: It is typical of casual games where only
about a quarter of players are still active in two months.
This alarming decline could be explained both
in the difficulty in retaining users who did not pay to
download the game (or made in-app purchases)
and the satiation which characterizes mobile games.
Michael Haenlein, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller, (2021),
"Satiation and Cross Promotion: Selling and Swapping
Users in Mobile Games," Read paper.
One of the main challenges to the mobile game industry is an alarming level of satiation, that is, a decline in user engagement and consequently in ad viewing, spending, and retention. This lowers users' CLV to the extent that makes acquisition from the likes of Facebook and Google untenable, driving the game publishers to cross promote, that is, sell and swap users among themselves. We model this cross promotion as first, a screening mechanism in that the fact of playing a game indicates specific preferences that might be suitable for an exchange with likewise games, and second, as a resetting mechanism that allows the swapped users to reset their engagement in the new game, thus making the swap or sell beneficial to both buyer and seller. We show that there exists an optimal level of satiation to a game, and with this level, we show the conditions under which the game publisher cross promotes, and when it does, what are the conditions for selling rather than swapping. We provide empirical support to the expected relationship between the user underlying retention probability, satiation, and cross promotion.